Dan Goodman (dsgood) wrote in futureguess,
Dan Goodman

US Election (written a bit in advance)

All Representatives, and about 1/3 of Senators, are up for re-election. Currently, there are Republican majorities in both House and Senate.

My prediction: The Democrats will gain House seats, possibly even a majority. House seats are usually safe; but more Republicans will manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory than Democrats will. And the White House, and the national Republican Party, will help give those seats to Democrats.

In the Senate, enough Republicans will lose to give Democrats a fragile majority.

In state elections, more Republican governorships will change hands than Democratic ones.
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The big wild card, of course, is another terrorist attack. Of course, given that it will have happened half a decade into GOP control of the government, the blame will probably fall squarely on said party.

OTOH, the GOP has been very, very good at playing the "all things to all people" angle since the 2000 election. Bush acts all happy and sunny, while the right media whips up an orgy of hatred towards the Democrats, but maintains enough distance from the administration for "plausable deniability."

The Democrats still haven't found an answer to such a two-tiered approach.

Bush manages it, but not all his underlings do. For example, Dick Cheney is foolish enough to say that Howard Dean has never been elected to anything.

That aside: I suspect that state-level and local politics will count more than national politics in the 2006 election. For example, I see the Republican Party losing a lot of power in Ohio.
Dan, you old fart. Your election predictions showed up in a psychohistory email list I happen to be a member of, and "dsgood" just had to be you.

It's been way too long since I've even browsed alt.callahans; it was a real pleasure to find you active and still causing trouble (in all the best senses), if now in Live Journal instead of a.c.

Anyway, I did come to make a topical post. I speculate that the cyclic swing may be skewed by two new elements: the fact that increased voter turnout does not necessarily mean an advantage to the left side, as once maintained by the "prevailing wisdom"; and the infusion of faith as a criterion of choice well beyond that experienced during Kennedy-Nixon. I have neither agreement nor disagreement with your predictions, just a nagging feeling that we need more data.

Be well,
Fedor (sometimes Mad), he with the bucks who dance on the bar for Mike's (dis)pleasure. ;-)